Friday, February 13, 2009

In 2009, the recession will worsen - thus we need to invest in sustainability, not growth [there's a difference]

We can expect the global economic recession to deepen significantly in 2009 and the extreme financial volatility and fragility to continue or even worsen. If or when there is a rebound, it will soon encounter oil supply constraints and the cycle will likely repeat itself.

Freight should increasingly be shifted from roads onto rail, especially on the Gauteng-Durban and Gauteng-Cape Town corridors.

Governments can mitigate the impact, especially by spending money in areas that promote long term sustainability and foster sustainable livelihoods.

Individuals and communities can strengthen their resilience to the tough times by spending wisely, reducing debts, acquiring appropriate new skills, building local economies and even adopting local complementary currencies. - Jeremey Wakeford

NVDL: The idea of investing in growth means trying to prop up already failing enterprises (that are doomed to fail anyway, including banks and housing markets.) Investing in sustainability means growing new things, opening up land to new farming practices, and making more alternative energy systems available. Primarily it is a focus more on rail than road. More on local living and local production capacity.
clipped from

Amidst all this volatility, what prospects for oil can be determined for 2009 and beyond?

The IEA warns of a serious supply crunch by 2015 if there is insufficient new investment, and states that “it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over”.

Similarly, Chris Skrebowski – consultant editor of the influential London-based Petroleum Review – shows through his megaprojects analysis that depletion of exiting oil fields will outpace oil flows from new projects by around 2012, assuming all goes well with investments.

However, sinking oil prices are causing a flood of delays to or cancellations of new oil projects. Canadian tar sand operations require a price above $80, while deep off-shore wells are uneconomic when the oil price dips below about $50 per barrel.

Needless to say, a major geopolitical event could trigger an oil price spike at almost any moment.

The next oil price shock will trigger another cycle of inflation and economic pain.

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