Climate change: 'We're talking about massive shifts in the Earth's systems'

The Guardian (UK's) Science correspondent James Randerson on Defra chief adviser's climate change warning

clipped from www.guardian.co.uk Download mp3 Exclusive: Defra's chief adviser, Bob Watson, says we need strategies to adapt to a potentially catastrophic increase in temperature.

Climate change: Prepare for global temperature rise of 4C, warns top scientist

James Randerson: Defra's chief adviser says we need strategy to adapt to potential catastrophic increase.

The UK should take active steps to prepare for dangerous climate change of perhaps 4C according to one of the government's chief scientific advisers.

In policy areas such as flood protection, agriculture and coastal erosion Professor Bob Watson said the country should plan for the effects of a 4C global average rise on pre-industrial levels. The EU is committed to limiting emissions globally so that temperatures do not rise more than 2C.

NVDL: Good idea, except there are a bunch of people (who claim to be very very smart), who say, "No, this is far too complicated for us to even know it's happening, and so we shouldn't do anything about it. Pass another Coca Cola please and can I have fries with that." In short: Do you think when temperatures around the world increase that it might have something to do with a thing called 'global warming'? I don't know, what do you think?

clipped from www.guardian.co.uk The UK should take active steps to prepare for dangerous climate change of perhaps 4C according to one of the government's chief scientific advisers. "There is no doubt that we should aim to limit changes in the global mean surface temperature to 2C above pre-industrial," Watson, the chief scientific adviser to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, told the Guardian. "But given this is an ambitious target, and we don't know in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realise a 2 degree target, we should be prepared to adapt to 4C." Link to this audio James Randerson: 'Massive shifts in Earth's systems' Globally, a 4C temperature rise would have a catastrophic impact.

Ten Precepts to Social Wellness

While listening to a discussion by a Social-Economic Analyst, Louie Fourie, certain interesting realities struck me, specially given the state of opinions and media driven angst in South Africa.

Firstly, whereas we the public tend to have a narrow view on happenings around SA, there are people out there, whose job it is to study events, tendencies and happenings in a holistic manner, who then generate much needed clarity and sensibility onto situations that are generally accepted by the masses as out of control or beyond repair.

What stood out the most, is that our sense of instability and insecurity is driven by a liberal media who thrive (or take advantage off) on our predisposition towards the macabre, the sensational and the voyeuristic.

During his discussion, he tabled ten precepts that are used around the globe in bringing clarity to how societies, families and Corporates are doing in wellness, growth, etc. The precepts were tabled in their main headings, with clarification headers forming part of the discussion.

The precepts tabled are: (note that each heading cannot be answered by a simple answer.)

1. Are we serious about democracy?
2. Do we have sound economic policies?
3. Is there freedom of movement, information, communications, etc?
4. Do we have a good education system?
5. Do we have a sound financial system?
6. Are people well?
7. Do we respect property rights?
8. How efficient is our Law Enforcement?
9. Do we have a sound business sector?
10. Do we have a vision?

According to Mr. Fourie, SA fails badly on three points, namely 4, 6 and 8. As for the rest, it fairs reasonably well in relation to the other 170 Nations/States evaluated under the above globally accepted system. The interesting piece of information is that SA lies in 44th position out of 170 Nations/Sates.

The largest eye-opener stemmed from the fact that people have a skewed perception of what a democracy is e.g. having the right to an opinion does not mean that one should exercise it, specially if that opinion incites rage or war.

Another valuable piece of information that the people must learn to cultivate, is to separate Loudness from Substance e.g. the loudest Politian usually gets the largest piece of the podium…

All in all, the discussion shed much light on the principles behind living in a democratic society; and some falsehoods that we take for the truth, and nothing but the truth.

Oil: The Killer Blow

Peak Oil has been much discussed, but it is a gradual process, only known for certain in the rearview mirror. By contrast, Peak Price Oil occurs without warning and can't be controlled. Our economic system may be far more fragile and vulnerable, and less resilient than we thought. Think of Peak Oil as a struggle with shortages, supply disruptions and price volatility; as a race for new energy alternatives. By contrast, Peak Price Oil is a sudden crippling or killing blow, price shocks threatening our way of life.

clipped from seattlepi.nwsource.com Morris believes Israel will "almost surely attack Iran's nuclear sites in the next four to seven months." He sees himself as a centrist, reflecting a broad consensus "shared by most Israelis across the political spectrum." Given the above credible Iran war threat, a new conceptual approach I have labeled Peak Price Oil is needed. A possible Israeli conventional or nuclear strike/response would function as a trigger event for Peak Price Oil. Present estimates of oil/gas prices in the event of an attack on Iran are: $200-$400 per barrel of oil, and $12-$16 per gallon of gasoline. Another possible trigger event for Peak Price Oil would be a successful terrorist strike on the Abqaiq refinery in Saudi Arabia, crippling oil supplies for several years.

JSE Crashing

The JSE has crashed over 2% in this morning's trade. Right now it is below 26000.
All Share 25969.770 Down 2.02%

clipped from www.businessday.co.za

Dope or Guts Behind Olympic Performances?

The Beijing Olympics will measure how fans burned by doping scandal after doping scandal will react to such a tale - a 41-year-old swimmer making the Olympics eight years after retiring and two years after giving birth. Will 40-something moms crowd around the TV to cheer on Torres?

Or will most people shrug, unwilling to believe? They may decide they can't take another disillusioning revelation, after putting their faith in Mark McGwire or Floyd Landis, in Roger Clemens or Marion Jones.

clipped from news.yahoo.com So you hear about a 41-year-old swimmer making the Olympics eight years after retiring and two years after giving birth. You immediately think: A. What an inspiring story! B. It's got to be performance-enhancing drugs. That's what it's like to be a sports fan in 2008, torn between awe and mistrust.

Dire Predictions for 2008

NVDL: Although I don't see these predictions as earth-shattering (there's evidence for all of the 'predictions' already underway, including multiple bank failures and bear markets), it remains a clear reminder of where weare headed.

11. Besides banks, many other players in financial markets are likely to find themselves in financial difficulty in 2008.

13. The stock market probably will decline during 2008.

14. Prices are likely to rise in 2008 for food and energy products. Prices may decline for homes and non-essential goods and services.

15. There is a chance that some type of discontinuity will make financial conditions suddenly take a turn for the worse.

clipped from www.theoildrum.com One of the issues I consider important in my forecast is systemic risk. This relates to the interconnectedness of the system, and predicts that if one part fails, other parts are also likely to fail. Many other articles mention this issue, but rarely address its full ramifications. This situation of progressively more defaults can be expected when the world is at peak oil; it can also be expected before peak oil, if energy prices rise over an extended period because the quantity of oil available is not sufficient to meet demand at a lower price. This seems to be the position we have been in recently. 3. Long term loans, including those for energy companies, are likely to become less available as awareness of peak oil rises. 4. There is likely to be a serious recession in 2008, deepening as the year goes on. 6. The amount of debt available to consumers is likely to decline.